Cattle feedlot placement shrinks as scientist models Foot and Mouth Disease

Drovers Cattle Network writer Matt Morgan reported the decline in cattle feedlot placements. The top ten states with feedlot capacity are reported in table 1. Cattle placements were down 4% from last year. Nebraska placements fell 175,00 head to 485,000 head. The 27 month placement low for Nebraska was set in March of 2013 at 350,000 head. Texas placements fell 135,000 to 385,000 head. December marks the first time in the past five months that placements have fallen in Texas. 

Morgan was asked if this shrinkage was due to heifer retention as proof that the US cattle herd was experiencing rebuilding. "I don't think very much heifer retention is going on, the supply continues to shrink", Morgan responded.

A research project in the Kansas State University College of Veterinary Medicine presents the largest model to date for evaluating the impact and control of a potential outbreak of Foot-and-Mouth (FMD) Disease in livestock. Mike Sanderson, professor of epidemiology in the college's diagnostic medicine and pathobiology department, and Sara McReynolds, a former graduate student of Sanderson's, published the results of their research in the December issue of the Journal Preventive Veterinary Medicine.

The results give an indication of what could happen in the livestock industry when following specific control protocols, specifically evaluating vaccination alone compared to depopulation. Scientist found that livestock movement control and good biosecurity to limit disease transmission between farms will be very important. Vaccination was not beneficial compared to depopulation alone to control the outbreak when biosecurity and movement controls were increased. The results of this study will provide information about the impacts of disease control protocols which may be useful in choosing the optimal control methods to meet the goal of rapid effective control and eradication. More research would be needed to better understand the optimal response to a FMD disease outbreak in the central U.S as well as in livestock operations in other parts of the country.

Sanders was asked what prompted the research into FMD outbreak. "We were interested in alternatives to a stamping out policy and the impacts on the outbreak size and cost". Additionally, Sanders was asked if FMD disease spread through wildlife was evaluated as well. Sanders responded that is a distinct possibility but funding was limited for the modeling project.

The US has faced FMD nine times since 1870. Each time strict harvest and quarantine practices have eradicated the disease. FMD infestations in the US do include wildlife. In 1924 an outbreak in California resulted in 109,000 head of livestock and 22,000 deer being harvested. Additionally, the last US FMD infestation was in Montebello, California in 1929. Infected hogs contracted the disease after being fed swill with meat scraps from a tourist ship from Argentina. A total of 3,600 animals were harvested to stop the spread of FMD (Congressional Research Service report to Congress April 16, 2001). Interestingly enough, the United States Department of Agriculture just closed the comment period for a proposal to import fresh beef from Argentina. Their most recent FMD outbreak was in 2001.

With our extensive commerce system now compared to 1929, a FMD outbreak would be catastrophic. In an economic model of the impact to the entire U.S., Paarlberg et al. (2002) estimated that a FMD outbreak could decrease U.S. farm income by approximately $14 billion and in 2012 it was estimated that an outbreak originating from the proposed National Bio- and Agri-Defense Facility in Kansas could exceed $100 billion in costs (NBAF, 2012).