"Lies, damned lies and statistics," pick the number which suits you best

In a recent tongue-in-cheek column about hunting opportunities in Montana I wrote that elk licenses didn’t get any cheaper after the wolves ate all the elk.

Now I know the wolves didn’t eat all the elk. The northern Yellowstone elk herd only dropped by 15,000 or so animals following wolf reintroduction. And I’ve been told ad nauseam of all the factors -- drought, other predators, hunting -- that led to the precipitous drop in that herd’s population.

But every time I mention wolves in an unflattering manner I get an E-mail from the man who led the wolf reintroduction efforts letting me know how wrong I am.

It’s like discussing the Iraq war with Dick Cheney.

Elk numbers in the state have actually increased since the wolves “recolonized,” he wrote me recently, “despite the presence of several hundred wolves.”

Then I read an article in the Helena Independent Record about a new technique to estimate the state’s wolf population. Researchers from the Montana Department of Fish, Wildlife and Parks, using the observations of deer and elk hunters, along with information from radio-collared wolves, estimate the state’s wolf population at more than 800.

That’s considerably more than “several hundred.”

But again, I’m sure I’ll be told I’ve misconstrued the facts or that information gathered from hunters is biased.

While undoubtedly there are lies, damned lies and statistics, I’m apparently too dumb to tell the difference. I just know the elk I used to hunt are at a fraction of their former numbers and their demise coincided with the reintroduction of wolves to Yellowstone.

It’s probably just a remarkable coincidence.

But they’re here and should be managed, and it seems the first step to doing so is to count them as accurately as possible.

Or not.

Population figures don’t play prominently in some very important decisions being made concerning sage grouse. Neither the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service nor FWP know how many there are.

So it doesn’t really matter how many wolves there are either, simply assume it’s not enough or it’s way too many and choose the numbers which best support your argument,

Just remember, in this political climate wolves trump elk, and a high elk population reflects well on wolves. Discovering there are more elk than we thought is like finding a stash of WMDs. It justifies the war. We never should of had any doubt.

Parker Heinlein is at

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